The Coming Tectonic Shift in Oil and Petrochemicals

July 20, 2017 | State of the Market Report

Chemical and oil companies risk major disruptions if they ignore accelerating trends away from oil as a transportation fuel, its major use. Regional change – for instance, a sharp decrease in oil demand in Europe – will make European refinery and downstream chemical production redundant as oil companies compete for the commodity chemical space. Alternatives will break oil’s transportation monopoly no later than the 2030s, and companies that fail to modify their business model aggressively in the next decade face extinction. This report details threats to oil as a transportation fuel and projects flattening demand based on maturing competitive technologies rather than the uncertain promise of regulations. While most industries define “long term” as three to five years, the long payoff of oil and chemical production assets requires a longer view.

Coverage Areas

  • Accelerating Materials Innovation
  • Corporate Strategic Intelligence: Chemicals and Materials
  • Energy Storage
  • Exploration and Production
  • Owning the Energy Transition

Table of Contents

  • Title page
  • Contents
  • Introduction
  • The source of oil’s power
  • New alternatives to oil remain imperfect replacements
  • The challenge of flat, and falling, demand
  • Measuring innovation: The Lux Competitive Benchmark
  • Case in point: BASF integrated facilities

Lead Analyst

Brent Giles, Ph.D.
Senior Analyst
+1 (917) 484-4878


Matthew Wagner, Ph.D.
Arij van Berkel

About Lux Research

Lux Research is a leading provider of tech-enabled research and advisory solutions, helping clients drive growth through technology innovation. A pioneer in the research industry, Lux uniquely combines technical expertise and business insights with a proprietary intelligence platform, using advanced analytics and data science to surface true leading indicators. With quality data derived from primary research, fact-based analysis, and opinions that challenge traditional thinking, Lux clients are empowered to make more informed decisions today to ensure future success.

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