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The core solar market to date, Germany, has begun its secular decline due to market saturation and falling subsidies, and as investors continue to struggle with subsidy volatility and bureaucratic impediments in other key markets, it is clear that market players need to cast their eyes further afield. To help clients identify new markets, Lux Research has compiled the most broad reaching analysis yet in the solar industry to find new sources of demand beyond the usual cast of characters: the Lux Research Solar Demand Tracker.
Specifically, we have catalogued subsidies, electricity rates and consumption data, projected panel and system prices, and ran those inputs through our proprietary levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model to identify the markets with the best internal rates of return (IRRs), lowest LCOEs, and those closest to generating solar power at equivalent cost to retail and wholesale electricity prices: ie, grid parity. We examined 50 U.S. states, 31 Chinese provinces and semi-autonomous regions, and 75 countries/regions globally for coverage of 82% of the world's total population across three main applications and six PV module technologies: c-Si, mc-Si, TF-Si, CdTe, CIGS and HCPV.
**Please note that for data values marked as 'total', annual data -- not quarterly data -- is shown.
Download the full dataset in Excel
For advanced analysis and offline exploration of the Solar Demand Tracker, the full data set is available for download.
These files are available to subscribers of the Lux Research