Shale Takes on Automotive: The Future of Natural Gas Vehicles

Cheap natural gas is disrupting the chemical and energy production markets, and impact on the transportation fuel space has been minimal. Gas-to-liquid (GTL) efforts are ramping, a range of alternative fuel innovators are scaling processes to convert methane, while natural gas vehicles (NGVs) number over 15 million today, replacing 1.5% of the global vehicle fleet. NGVs are currently concentrated in government-driven markets outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), like Iran and Pakistan, and here we examine the future of NGVs in key automotive markets: the U.S., Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Japan. We analyze payback periods and forecast the market in these key regions, and examine the main technical and market factors positioned to accelerate or decelerate the market.