Bio-based chemicals and biofuels must compete on cost and performance with petrochemicals and petroleum fuels, or the market will fail. As feedstock costs rise and governments push to non-food biomass as inputs, cellulosic chemical and fuel producers are racing to commercialize. Many have failed, and the economics today are still uncertain. We built a detailed cost model to analyze five main routes from lignocellulosic biomass to sugars: dilute acid, ammonia fiber expansion, steam explosion, supercritical fluid, and concentrated acid. We then analyzed 29 leading technology providers on the Lux Innovation Grid to identify today’s winners, and the ideal partners to build out a winning portfolio to integrate the lignocellulosic biomass to fuels and chemicals supply chain.