There is rising pressure on developers to bring novel materials to market quickly and efficiently. Yet most materials fail to meet the hype, and disappoint investors that have unrealistic timeline expectations. In looking for the next big thing, technology scouts and venture capitalists alike often find that “big” requires more patience than their metrics allow. We identified three key variables that strongly influence commercializaiton trajectories in order to classify materials into eight distinct categories. We then compared specific emerging materials with a mature material with the same classification in our framework to predict the next major commercial milestone for the emerging material. This methodology creates a predictive tool for advanced materials development that can assist executives in early-stage technology scouting, new business development, and corporate venturing plan for and target materials in the current pipeline for near- and long-term impact.
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