Thin-film batteries (TFBs) offer slimmer form factors and added flexibility over incumbent energy storage, but they are also expensive and difficult to mass-produce; despite hundreds of millions invested into start-ups in this space, there has been no clear line of sight to profitability. We model three distinct cost-reduction scenarios for TFBs, and find that in the likely case the market will grow to about $400 million in 2025 (18% CAGR), driven by the emerging wearables category in consumer electronics, where thin form factors and added flexibility are key. In the very optimistic scenario, TFB revenues in 2025 could be as high as $4 billion (49% CAGR), but would require technological breakthroughs as well as billions invested into production scale-up.
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