Crossing the Line: Li-ion Battery Cost Reduction and Its Effect on Vehicles and Stationary Storage

April 01, 2015 | State of the Market Report

If lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can reach substantially lower costs, they will supercharge the adoption of plug-in vehicles and stationary energy storage. However, the energy storage industry is notoriously secretive about today’s Li-ion battery costs and their future trends. Players also disagree about the right path forward: Some are pursuing gigafactories making cylindrical nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA)-based cells, while others are taking a completely different approach. This report uses a new bottom-up Li-ion cost model to account for differences in battery chemistry, form factor, production scale, location, and other nuances. We find that Li-ion battery pack prices will fall to $172/kWh by 2025 for the best-in-class players (while others will lag at more than $229/kWh), and also analyze the resulting impact on more affordable electric vehicles (EVs) and stationary applications.

Coverage Areas

  • Energy Storage
  • Owning the Energy Transition
  • The Future of Mobility

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Landscape
  • Analysis
  • Outlook

Lead Analyst

Cosmin Laslau, Ph.D.
Director, Research Products

Contributors

Kevin See, Ph.D.
Dean Frankel

About Lux Research

Lux Research is a leading provider of tech-enabled research and advisory solutions, helping clients drive growth through technology innovation. A pioneer in the research industry, Lux uniquely combines technical expertise and business insights with a proprietary intelligence platform, using advanced analytics and data science to surface true leading indicators. With quality data derived from primary research, fact-based analysis, and opinions that challenge traditional thinking, Lux clients are empowered to make more informed decisions today to ensure future success.

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