Today’s Li-ion batteries are under intense pressure to evolve, leading to longer-running electronics, cheaper electric vehicles, and a market for stationary storage. Through our analysis, we find that the biggest growth in batteries will actually come from gradually evolving Li-ion batteries, through incremental innovations like higher-voltage cathodes and electrolytes, paired with higher-capacity active materials like silicon-containing composites. Next-generation batteries must wait until nearly 2030 to gain noteworthy market share – around then, solid-state batteries will win about $3 billion in transportation and $2 billion in electronics; lithium-sulfur will capture market share, too, though its growth will be slower. Early adopter markets will be key – we recommend focusing on military, wearables, and internet of things (IoT) in particular.
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