Building the Car of 2025: How to Cost-effectively Get to 54.5 mpg Using the Right Mix of Advanced Technologies

December 07, 2015 | State of the Market Report

The automotive industry is under intense pressure to lower emissions and increase fuel efficiency – and, as evidenced by VW’s recent scandal, this crucial question is costing the industry a lot of money. The roadmap to dramatically cleaning up transportation includes many options, which include lightweight materials, increasing electrification, autonomy, and alternative fuels – but picking the right mix of options is tricky. To guide clients, we developed a new bottom-up model for automotive innovation for fuel economy improvements, analyzing how cost-effective various pathways are towards regulatory targets. We used this model to develop a likely-case scenario for the average vehicle of 2025, predict the effects within the automotive supply chain, and highlight surprising opportunities that may result from the coming shakeout.

Coverage Areas

  • Accelerating Materials Innovation
  • Digital Transformation
  • Owning the Energy Transition
  • The Future of Mobility

Table of Contents

  • Title page
  • Landscape
  • Despite cheap oil prices, vehicles are still under pressure to evolve, due to ongoing pollution concerns
  • There is no single solution to improving efficiency, but four key areas are bringing new technologies to market
  • Case Studies
  • The future of the automobile is far from decided, but the industry needs to place its bets now for 2025
  • Analysis
  • We focus on four very different potential pathways to meeting the 54.5 mpg targets of 2025
  • Our analysis indicates that the most likely scenario is aluminum and 48 V microhybrids, but the race is close
  • Outlook

Lead Analysts

Cosmin Laslau, Ph.D.
Director, Research Products
Research Director


Ross Kozarsky
Maryanna Saenko

About Lux Research

Lux Research is a leading provider of tech-enabled research and advisory solutions, helping clients drive growth through technology innovation. A pioneer in the research industry, Lux uniquely combines technical expertise and business insights with a proprietary intelligence platform, using advanced analytics and data science to surface true leading indicators. With quality data derived from primary research, fact-based analysis, and opinions that challenge traditional thinking, Lux clients are empowered to make more informed decisions today to ensure future success.

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