Chemical and oil companies risk major disruptions if they ignore accelerating trends away from oil as a transportation fuel, its major use. Regional change – for instance, a sharp decrease in oil demand in Europe – will make European refinery and downstream chemical production redundant as oil companies compete for the commodity chemical space. Alternatives will break oil’s transportation monopoly no later than the 2030s, and companies that fail to modify their business model aggressively in the next decade face extinction. This report details threats to oil as a transportation fuel and projects flattening demand based on maturing competitive technologies rather than the uncertain promise of regulations. While most industries define “long term” as three to five years, the long payoff of oil and chemical production assets requires a longer view.
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