Organic light-emitting diode (OLED) lighting has received much attention due to the potential of the technology for unique designs and cheap devices. However, the current state of OLED lighting – with high cost, modest effiency, and poor lifetimes – is far from realizing that potential. We explored OLED lighting to identify the technical challenges that exist, and where development is needed. From this analysis, we forecast a price decrease from $18/lm today to $0.71/lm on glass and $0.18/lm on flexible substrates in 2020. Despite this dramatic price improvement, OLED will continue to lag other lighting technologies on price, and therefore will only command a $58 million 2020 market share with this price drop. New applications that take advantage of OLED’s unique properties – such as flexibility and transparency – while absorbing a high price are required for initial OLED growth, and OLED will remain a minor player in lighting until such applications are uncovered.
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