Finding the End of the Tunnel for OLED Lighting

June 23, 2011 | State of the Market Report

Organic light-emitting diode (OLED) lighting has received much attention due to the potential of the technology for unique designs and cheap devices. However, the current state of OLED lighting – with high cost, modest effiency, and poor lifetimes – is far from realizing that potential. We explored OLED lighting to identify the technical challenges that exist, and where development is needed. From this analysis, we forecast a price decrease from $18/lm today to $0.71/lm on glass and $0.18/lm on flexible substrates in 2020. Despite this dramatic price improvement, OLED will continue to lag other lighting technologies on price, and therefore will only command a $58 million 2020 market share with this price drop. New applications that take advantage of OLED’s unique properties – such as flexibility and transparency – while absorbing a high price are required for initial OLED growth, and OLED will remain a minor player in lighting until such applications are uncovered.

Coverage Area

  • Digital Transformation

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Landscape
    OLED lighting has some attractive properties, but the technology is too immature to capitalize on them now. Market opportunities will be limited without a uniquely suited application.
  • Analysis
    OLED lighting needs to solve several technical challenges; despite its unique properties, high price will limit it to modest adoption, creating a market of just $58 million in 2020.
  • Outlook

Lead Analyst

Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D.
Director, Research


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